Time: 6 signs of the crisis ( agree completely )

Time: 6 signs of the crisis.

March 5, 2009 | 17:01.

Many economists are predicting that the recession may last into next year and unemployment will reach 10 %. But this is only the pessimistic forecasts. Time magazine identified six grounds on which we can determine that the recession is nearing its completion.

a. The S.

2. An important indicator is the data on car sales. Now make predictions about what will be monthly sales by 45% below last year's. Even if this figure will be 25-30 %, it will be a gradual return means buyers.

3. If the IMF and rich countries will be able to prevent a default in countries such as Ireland and Ukraine, it would mean that the global credit system is recovering from last year's turmoil.

4. The fall of China's GDP growth below 6% would indicate a significant drop in consumer demand in the U.S. and the EU on cheap industrial products. On the contrary, maintaining the pace of growth will be a positive sign.

5. The appearance of the real economic impact of Obama's stimulus package, such as reducing unemployment and increasing investment in certain sectors.

6. Last, but not least is the monthly amount of loans issued by the U.S. Federal Reserve banks and companies. When this number falls below $ 100 billion, so the crisis is nearing an end.

Note that at present all the developed and developing economies of the world record is strong decline. For example, the fourth quarter of 2008 was a record for the fastest decline in the economies of countries in the international Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD). Reduced investment and consumption led to a decrease in the aggregate for the 30 states by 1.5%, which was not in 1960, when observations began.